[19 Oct 2003]
In the outlook for Summer 2003-2004, the Mauritius Meteorological services forecast a dozen storms in our region.
“There is a high probability that cyclonic activity during the 2003-2004 summer season will be above normal. A total of 12 named storms is expected to develop in the South-West Indian Ocean. Most of the formations will be in the region west of Diego Garcia. Cyclone activity is expected to slow down by April”, says the report.
All named storms that will develop in the area will not necessarily make landfall on the islands of the Republic of Mauritius (especially Mauritius and Rodrigues). Atmospheric conditions during summer will be conducive to development of extreme weather events that may adversely affect local weather, with torrential rains and strong winds. The rainfall season may begin by November, explains the director of the Meteorological services, Mr Sok Appadu.
Furthermore, November to April cumulative rains are expected to reach the long-term mean of about 1400 mm over Mauritius and 800 mm over Rodrigues. Consequently heavy rainfall is expected in January and February.
Temperatures will be generally above the long-term mean, with high humidity leading to warm, sultry and uncomfortable conditions. Above normal maximum temperatures occurring over extended periods, can cause uneasiness, specially among old people and infants.
Below is the list of names of tropical cyclones for the season:
ABAIMBA, BENI, CELA, DARIUS, ELITA, FRANK, GAFILO, HELMA, ITSENG, JUBA, KATIBA, LENNY, MOINGAZA, NALEDI, OLIE, PATOU, QUILMANE, RALPH, SEFATE, TOM, UMURI, VALETTA, WELLS, XIVIER, YVONNE, ZURI.